Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
2021年7月16日Register here: http://gg.gg/vfnnm
© Provided by CBS Sports
*2020 Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
*2021 Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
The 2021 Daytona 500 will take place on Sunday, Feb. 14 at the famed 2.5-mile oval of Daytona International Speedway, with the green flag dropping at 2:30 p.m. ET. It’s the 63rd running of The Great American Race, and the 40-driver 2021 Daytona 500 starting grid will be eager to put what they learned during the coronavirus-altered 2020 season to the test. Denny Hamlin has won the last two Daytona 500 races and will try to become the first driver ever to three-peat.
Gregg and Jim discuss their DFS picks for the Daytona 500 FanDuel Hurry Up is a daily fantasy and sports betting show hosted by Gregg Sussman and a rotating cast of DFS and betting analysts from. 2021 Fantasy NASCAR Picks, Rankings, and Advice The 2017 NASCAR Sprint Cup will kick off with The Clash on February 18th at the Daytona International Speedway in Florida. We are working hard to bring you all the info you’ll need for your fantasy NASCAR league. As difficult as the Daytona 500 can be to predict (with Big One crashes, blown engines, and the capriciousness of the multi-car draft) there are certain drivers who still manage to post back-to. NASCAR expert Brian Polking gets you ready for the Daytona 500 with his fantasy picks for NASCAR.com Fantasy Live, the Driver Group Game and Slingshot Fantasy Auto. NASCAR Fantasy Picks for Daytona 500. The Daytona 500 marks the return of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule as the first its first major race of the 2020 season at 3 p.m. EST this Sunday, Feb. 16, at Daytona International Speedway.
Hamlin is the 8-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Daytona 500 odds from William Hill Sportsbook, but several past champions and superspeedway standouts are hot on his heels. In fact, there are 11 other drivers listed at 20-1 or shorter on the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona odds board, including Joey Logano (10-1), Kevin Harvick (12-1), and Martin Truex Jr. (18-1). Before you scour the 2021 Daytona 500 starting lineup and make your NASCAR at Daytona predictions for the Great American Race, be sure to see the latest 2021 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, his model simulated the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2021 Daytona 500.Top 2021 Daytona 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Alex Bowman, even though he’s an 18-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021 from William Hill. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 27-year-old will move from the No. 88 car to the No. 48 car for Hendrick Motorsports, but that minor change shouldn’t keep him from qualifying near the front during a condensed Daytona Speed Week.
Bowman qualified in the front row of the Daytona 500 the last three years, winning the pole in 2018 and starting on the outside row in 2019 and 2020. While he hasn’t been able to parlay that into a top-10 finish yet, he did finish seventh last season in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 after starting eighth.
The track should be well-worn with the Clash, qualifying, Duels, Truck Series, ARCA and Xfinity all running in the five days prior. Starting in front could be a huge advantage come race day, making Bowman a live long shot for the 2021 Daytona 500.
And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, one of the Vegas favorites at 12-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Daytona 500 lineup. Harvick won a career-high nine races in 2020 and spent a large portion of the season at the top of the NASCAR Cup Series standings.
However, he faltered late, finishing outside the top 10 in four of his last six starts and failing to make the Championship Four cutoff. Harvick is a two-time winner at Daytona, but his track record at the iconic superspeedway has been poor. He has just one top 10 in his last nine starts at Daytona International Speedway and has finished 20th or worse in seven of those races.How to make 2021 NASCAR at Daytona picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2021 Daytona 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 Daytona 500 odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Daytona 500 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin’s win last season. 2021 Daytona 500 odds
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
William Byron 18-1
Aric Almirola 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
A moneyline is a type of straight wager where the bettor wagers simply on who will win the contest, straight up – without any spread involved. The easiest way to think of moneyline betting odds is that you are only betting on who wins the game. It does not matter how many points or goals they win by, all that matters is who wins. Betting the moneyline for a game is possibly the most simple way to wager on sports. Bettors just choose a player or team to win. If the bettor chooses the winning side, the sportsbook will pay the amount due. It’s really that simple. Rest assured, the moneyline always refers to betting on the winner of the game, no matter what. If you need a refresher on calculating all types of odds, be sure to check out our guide. This skill is essential to understanding the moneyline and giving you a return on wagers! Why Is There No Moneyline Option Listed for a Particular Game? Moneyline meaning in betting. A moneyline bet simply involves you picking one of two teams to win the game. No catch, no angle, just the right answer or the wrong answer. Each team/person in a matchup for a moneyline betting option is given a separate numerical value for bettors to wager on and these are called “odds.”.
Kyle Larson 18-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1
Austin Dillon 25-1
Bubba Wallace 25-1
Ross Chastain 30-1
Matt DiBenedetto 30-1
Cole Custer 40-1
Chase Briscoe 40-1
Tyler Reddick 40-1
Christopher Bell 40-1
Chris Buescher 50-1
Austin Cindric 50-12020 Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
Erik Jones 50-1
Michael McDowell 75-1
Ryan Newman 75-1
Jamie McMurray 100-1
Ryan Preece 100-1
Ty Dillon 100-1
Daniel Suarez 125-1
David Ragan 150-1
Noah Gragson 150-1
Anthony Alfredo 150-1
Corey Lajoie 150-1
Kaz Grala 250-1
BJ McLeod 750-1
Timmy Hill 750-1
Chad Finchum 750-1
Josh Bilicki 750-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
Quin Houff 1000-1
DraftKings is running some huge contests for the Daytona 500, so I’ve invited a big DFS NASCAR fan Chris (@Jager_Bombs9 on Twitter) to provide us with some some DraftKings NASCAR general strategy and tips, and then his Daytona 500 DraftKings picks. Enjoy the article!
Welcome back for another exciting Daily Fantasy NASCAR season. We are now a little over three months removed from Jimmie Johnson picking up his seventh career Championship in what was a wild Homestead race. If you have tuned out since then, you have missed what I can best describe as a sport overhaul. NASCAR has always been known to tweak things on the fly but this change was a big one in attempt to raise the bar for drivers and teams while most of all increasing the viewing experience for the fan.NASCAR Season Changes
Before getting into the race this week, let’s take a look at some of the major changes and how they will affect DFS strategy.
It starts with main series sponsorship changing hands from Sprint to Monster Energy and the phrase “Chase” being replaced by “Playoffs”. The playoff structure itself didn’t change, just how the points are accumulated throughout the season. Races will now be split into three stages with Stage One and Stage Two each making up about 25% of the total laps and the Final Stage making up about 50% of the total laps. It may seem confusing at first but think of these stages as pre-determined cautions that will come twice in each race.
NASCAR has also changed the way points are distributed during the race. At the end of the first two stages the Top 10 drivers will receive points (10 for 1st down to 1 for 10th) and the winner of each stage will also receive a “Playoff Bonus Point” which can be used if they qualify for playoffs later in the year. At the end of the final stage, all drivers will receive points (40 for 1st, 35 for 2nd down to 1 point for 36th-40th) and the winner of the race will also receive an additional five “Playoff Bonus Points”.
The main reason for this was the perception that drivers weren’t giving it 100% through an entire race (think JGR at Talladega in last years Chase). No one wants to see cars riding around the back waiting for the final 10-20% of laps before cranking it up, especially DFS players who have money invested. This new format is going to make sure that doesn’t happen as winning the race alone does not guarantee you will end up with the most points at the end of the race.DraftKings NASCAR Scoring
From a daily fantasy perspective, these rules changes won’t affect our strategy a whole lot. You can expect the best teams to make adjustments to their strategies at different tracks to maximize their winning and total point potential.
DraftKings themselves haven’t made any changes at this time and still award points the same way. At the end of the race drivers get points for their finishing position (46 for 1st, 42 for 2nd down to 4 for 40th) as well as bonus points for Fastest Laps (.5 point), Laps Led (.25 points) and Place Differential (+/- 1). For example, in a 200 lap race if Driver A starts 20th, finishes first, leads 100 laps and had 50 fast laps he would receive:
• 40 points for the win
• 19 points for place differential (starting position – finishing position)
• 25 points for laps led (100x.25)
• 25 points for fast laps(50x.5)
• Total of 109 DraftKings pointsDraftKings Daytona 500 Strategy
Now that we know how everything works, let’s jump into some general strategy. The first thing I do for each weeks race is enter the drivers into my spreadsheet and analyze their track history (last two years and career #’s) and current form (last 6 races). Before salaries are released, this is a great way to build your initial target list and have a feel for who is hot and who runs well at certain tracks (superspeedways, road courses, short tracks, 1.5 mile tracks).
Then one of the most important parts of the weekly research comes with analyzing the practice and qualifying information. On a typical race weekend (not Daytona 500) teams will get a practice on Friday followed by qualifying and then usually one or two more practices before the race (each race/track is different).
For the most part, depending on weather, I will not really weigh the first practice in my model as teams normally work on qualifying setup which doesn’t give us much info for how they will run during the race. The practices that follow qualifying are the ones we should be weighing the most as teams will be running race setups giving us a much more clear picture of what cars are going to be fast. Not only are we looking at overall practice speeds but also a drivers 10 lap averages which can tell us who has a strong, long run car.
Place differential points on DraftKings can be a huge source of value and the best way to gauge these is by analyzing a driver’s starting position compared to how fast his car was in the post-qualifying practices. For example, I will be looking for a driver who qualifies outside of the Top 15 or Top 20 who had a car that ranked Top 10 in one or two of the practices. Vice versa, I will try to avoid the lower end drivers who qualify well but don’t show the speed of a Top10 car. It is important to avoid any negative points.
Once we have all the data crunched, it’s time to build the lineups. I like to start by highlighting three or four drivers who I feel have the best chance at get those “Dominator” points (laps led/fast laps) as those are most times the drivers who finish up front each week, barring a mechanical issue or accident. Even in cash games it is optimal to pay up for the one or two drivers who check all the boxes. As this is a salary cap game, we also must find those value plays as the “Dominator” type drivers are, more times than not, the most expensive options each week. Like I mentioned above, to grab find the best value plays look for drivers with a positive Qualifying to Practice Average Differential and concentrate on the post-qualifying practices.
Over the past year I have turned my attention to multi entering the low limit GPP’s with 15-50 max entry limits. This has allowed me to test out a bunch of different strategies. What I find works best is selecting a core of three of four drivers (depending on the week) and building multiple lineups around them, interchanging the pieces. This, in itself, is a variable strategy as the weeks where your core takes a hit you suffer larger losses than if you had a mix of more drivers. However, on the weeks where your core three or four hits, you will profit much bigger and have a greater chance of hitting the right combination and taking down a GPP.
With that dive into the Daytona 500!
The official 2017 NASCAR season gets underway this Sunday with the sport’s biggest race, the 59th running of the Great American Race. Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5 mile Tri-Oval Superspeedway with 31° banking in the cars. It means crazy high speeds and it also means NASCAR and manufacturer teams will be getting together to form a drafting combinations in an attempt to create more speed. This has been and will continue to be a main strategy for me at the plate tracks (Daytona/Talladega). The teams I am concentrating on the most this weekend are going to be Joe Gibbs Racing/Front Row Motorsports (Toyota) and Team Penske/Stewart-Haas Racing (Ford). Let’s get into my favorite picks for the Daytona 500.DraftKings Picks for the Daytona 5002021 Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
Denny Hamlin ($9,600)
The Daytona 500 defending champion comes at an elite value this week as the sixth ranked driver in DraftKings salary. Outside of his big win last February, he has also finished Top 5 in three of his last four races at Daytona and is tied wit the second most laps led (116) in that time. We have seen early on in Speedweeks that the JGR and Toyota cars will be working together and look extremely fast. Even after a pit penalty in the second Duel on Thursday, Hamlin was able to work with Austin Dillon and make his way to the front, eventually passing Dale Jr. to grab the checkered flag. With a mid $9K price tag, Hamlin is safe in all formats.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($10,600)
Any questions of about Dale Earnhardt Jr’s health should be left at the door after Thursday night’s Duel races. He started on the front row and ended up leading 53 laps pulling off some vintage maneuvers to keep himself out front of the fast line. He got passed late by Denny Hamlin and finished sixth but with a starting position on the front row for Sunday’s race, he will once again be in a great spot to pick up a ton of laps led. If planning on stacking Hendrick teammates consider Chase Elliot ($9,200) or Kasey Kahne ($7,600) who come at a discount from the seven time champion, Jimmie Johnson ($10,000).
Clint Bowyer ($7,800)
It’s a new team, new season and new opportunity for Clint Bowyer to show off his talents behind the wheel of race car. He joined Stewart-Haas racing this off-season and looks to fill the gigantic shoes of the departing Tony Stewart. He will have a great opportunity to get things going at a track he has had success at over his career. He has never won at Daytona but has finished Top 10 in three of his last four races and 11 of his 22 career races here. If he gets off to a fast start this season, there is a good chance we won’t see him in the $7K range very often. Take advantage of the value this week.
David Ragan ($6,000)
If you are employing a stars and scrubs approach this week, or any week for that matter, you need to nail one or two bottom end picks. That doesn’t mean they have to win the race or even finish Top 10. Ragan will start 22nd for the Daytona 500 which gives him a little room for place differential upside considering he has finished Top 20 in three of his last four Daytona races. While it was almost six years ago now, Ragan also won the July Coke Zero 400 her at Daytona back in 2011 so he know how to get around. It was also positive to see him push Dale Jr. early in the second Duel before getting involved in some contact and finishing 11th.
Thank you for reading and if you have any questions through practices leading up to the race on Sunday you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Jager_Bombs9).
Register here: http://gg.gg/vfnnm
https://diarynote.indered.space
© Provided by CBS Sports
*2020 Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
*2021 Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
The 2021 Daytona 500 will take place on Sunday, Feb. 14 at the famed 2.5-mile oval of Daytona International Speedway, with the green flag dropping at 2:30 p.m. ET. It’s the 63rd running of The Great American Race, and the 40-driver 2021 Daytona 500 starting grid will be eager to put what they learned during the coronavirus-altered 2020 season to the test. Denny Hamlin has won the last two Daytona 500 races and will try to become the first driver ever to three-peat.
Gregg and Jim discuss their DFS picks for the Daytona 500 FanDuel Hurry Up is a daily fantasy and sports betting show hosted by Gregg Sussman and a rotating cast of DFS and betting analysts from. 2021 Fantasy NASCAR Picks, Rankings, and Advice The 2017 NASCAR Sprint Cup will kick off with The Clash on February 18th at the Daytona International Speedway in Florida. We are working hard to bring you all the info you’ll need for your fantasy NASCAR league. As difficult as the Daytona 500 can be to predict (with Big One crashes, blown engines, and the capriciousness of the multi-car draft) there are certain drivers who still manage to post back-to. NASCAR expert Brian Polking gets you ready for the Daytona 500 with his fantasy picks for NASCAR.com Fantasy Live, the Driver Group Game and Slingshot Fantasy Auto. NASCAR Fantasy Picks for Daytona 500. The Daytona 500 marks the return of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule as the first its first major race of the 2020 season at 3 p.m. EST this Sunday, Feb. 16, at Daytona International Speedway.
Hamlin is the 8-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Daytona 500 odds from William Hill Sportsbook, but several past champions and superspeedway standouts are hot on his heels. In fact, there are 11 other drivers listed at 20-1 or shorter on the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona odds board, including Joey Logano (10-1), Kevin Harvick (12-1), and Martin Truex Jr. (18-1). Before you scour the 2021 Daytona 500 starting lineup and make your NASCAR at Daytona predictions for the Great American Race, be sure to see the latest 2021 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, his model simulated the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2021 Daytona 500.Top 2021 Daytona 500 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Alex Bowman, even though he’s an 18-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021 from William Hill. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 27-year-old will move from the No. 88 car to the No. 48 car for Hendrick Motorsports, but that minor change shouldn’t keep him from qualifying near the front during a condensed Daytona Speed Week.
Bowman qualified in the front row of the Daytona 500 the last three years, winning the pole in 2018 and starting on the outside row in 2019 and 2020. While he hasn’t been able to parlay that into a top-10 finish yet, he did finish seventh last season in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 after starting eighth.
The track should be well-worn with the Clash, qualifying, Duels, Truck Series, ARCA and Xfinity all running in the five days prior. Starting in front could be a huge advantage come race day, making Bowman a live long shot for the 2021 Daytona 500.
And a massive shocker: Kevin Harvick, one of the Vegas favorites at 12-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Daytona 500 lineup. Harvick won a career-high nine races in 2020 and spent a large portion of the season at the top of the NASCAR Cup Series standings.
However, he faltered late, finishing outside the top 10 in four of his last six starts and failing to make the Championship Four cutoff. Harvick is a two-time winner at Daytona, but his track record at the iconic superspeedway has been poor. He has just one top 10 in his last nine starts at Daytona International Speedway and has finished 20th or worse in seven of those races.How to make 2021 NASCAR at Daytona picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2021 Daytona 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 Daytona 500 odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Daytona 500 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin’s win last season. 2021 Daytona 500 odds
Denny Hamlin 8-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Kyle Busch 15-1
William Byron 18-1
Aric Almirola 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
A moneyline is a type of straight wager where the bettor wagers simply on who will win the contest, straight up – without any spread involved. The easiest way to think of moneyline betting odds is that you are only betting on who wins the game. It does not matter how many points or goals they win by, all that matters is who wins. Betting the moneyline for a game is possibly the most simple way to wager on sports. Bettors just choose a player or team to win. If the bettor chooses the winning side, the sportsbook will pay the amount due. It’s really that simple. Rest assured, the moneyline always refers to betting on the winner of the game, no matter what. If you need a refresher on calculating all types of odds, be sure to check out our guide. This skill is essential to understanding the moneyline and giving you a return on wagers! Why Is There No Moneyline Option Listed for a Particular Game? Moneyline meaning in betting. A moneyline bet simply involves you picking one of two teams to win the game. No catch, no angle, just the right answer or the wrong answer. Each team/person in a matchup for a moneyline betting option is given a separate numerical value for bettors to wager on and these are called “odds.”.
Kyle Larson 18-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20-1
Austin Dillon 25-1
Bubba Wallace 25-1
Ross Chastain 30-1
Matt DiBenedetto 30-1
Cole Custer 40-1
Chase Briscoe 40-1
Tyler Reddick 40-1
Christopher Bell 40-1
Chris Buescher 50-1
Austin Cindric 50-12020 Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
Erik Jones 50-1
Michael McDowell 75-1
Ryan Newman 75-1
Jamie McMurray 100-1
Ryan Preece 100-1
Ty Dillon 100-1
Daniel Suarez 125-1
David Ragan 150-1
Noah Gragson 150-1
Anthony Alfredo 150-1
Corey Lajoie 150-1
Kaz Grala 250-1
BJ McLeod 750-1
Timmy Hill 750-1
Chad Finchum 750-1
Josh Bilicki 750-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
Quin Houff 1000-1
DraftKings is running some huge contests for the Daytona 500, so I’ve invited a big DFS NASCAR fan Chris (@Jager_Bombs9 on Twitter) to provide us with some some DraftKings NASCAR general strategy and tips, and then his Daytona 500 DraftKings picks. Enjoy the article!
Welcome back for another exciting Daily Fantasy NASCAR season. We are now a little over three months removed from Jimmie Johnson picking up his seventh career Championship in what was a wild Homestead race. If you have tuned out since then, you have missed what I can best describe as a sport overhaul. NASCAR has always been known to tweak things on the fly but this change was a big one in attempt to raise the bar for drivers and teams while most of all increasing the viewing experience for the fan.NASCAR Season Changes
Before getting into the race this week, let’s take a look at some of the major changes and how they will affect DFS strategy.
It starts with main series sponsorship changing hands from Sprint to Monster Energy and the phrase “Chase” being replaced by “Playoffs”. The playoff structure itself didn’t change, just how the points are accumulated throughout the season. Races will now be split into three stages with Stage One and Stage Two each making up about 25% of the total laps and the Final Stage making up about 50% of the total laps. It may seem confusing at first but think of these stages as pre-determined cautions that will come twice in each race.
NASCAR has also changed the way points are distributed during the race. At the end of the first two stages the Top 10 drivers will receive points (10 for 1st down to 1 for 10th) and the winner of each stage will also receive a “Playoff Bonus Point” which can be used if they qualify for playoffs later in the year. At the end of the final stage, all drivers will receive points (40 for 1st, 35 for 2nd down to 1 point for 36th-40th) and the winner of the race will also receive an additional five “Playoff Bonus Points”.
The main reason for this was the perception that drivers weren’t giving it 100% through an entire race (think JGR at Talladega in last years Chase). No one wants to see cars riding around the back waiting for the final 10-20% of laps before cranking it up, especially DFS players who have money invested. This new format is going to make sure that doesn’t happen as winning the race alone does not guarantee you will end up with the most points at the end of the race.DraftKings NASCAR Scoring
From a daily fantasy perspective, these rules changes won’t affect our strategy a whole lot. You can expect the best teams to make adjustments to their strategies at different tracks to maximize their winning and total point potential.
DraftKings themselves haven’t made any changes at this time and still award points the same way. At the end of the race drivers get points for their finishing position (46 for 1st, 42 for 2nd down to 4 for 40th) as well as bonus points for Fastest Laps (.5 point), Laps Led (.25 points) and Place Differential (+/- 1). For example, in a 200 lap race if Driver A starts 20th, finishes first, leads 100 laps and had 50 fast laps he would receive:
• 40 points for the win
• 19 points for place differential (starting position – finishing position)
• 25 points for laps led (100x.25)
• 25 points for fast laps(50x.5)
• Total of 109 DraftKings pointsDraftKings Daytona 500 Strategy
Now that we know how everything works, let’s jump into some general strategy. The first thing I do for each weeks race is enter the drivers into my spreadsheet and analyze their track history (last two years and career #’s) and current form (last 6 races). Before salaries are released, this is a great way to build your initial target list and have a feel for who is hot and who runs well at certain tracks (superspeedways, road courses, short tracks, 1.5 mile tracks).
Then one of the most important parts of the weekly research comes with analyzing the practice and qualifying information. On a typical race weekend (not Daytona 500) teams will get a practice on Friday followed by qualifying and then usually one or two more practices before the race (each race/track is different).
For the most part, depending on weather, I will not really weigh the first practice in my model as teams normally work on qualifying setup which doesn’t give us much info for how they will run during the race. The practices that follow qualifying are the ones we should be weighing the most as teams will be running race setups giving us a much more clear picture of what cars are going to be fast. Not only are we looking at overall practice speeds but also a drivers 10 lap averages which can tell us who has a strong, long run car.
Place differential points on DraftKings can be a huge source of value and the best way to gauge these is by analyzing a driver’s starting position compared to how fast his car was in the post-qualifying practices. For example, I will be looking for a driver who qualifies outside of the Top 15 or Top 20 who had a car that ranked Top 10 in one or two of the practices. Vice versa, I will try to avoid the lower end drivers who qualify well but don’t show the speed of a Top10 car. It is important to avoid any negative points.
Once we have all the data crunched, it’s time to build the lineups. I like to start by highlighting three or four drivers who I feel have the best chance at get those “Dominator” points (laps led/fast laps) as those are most times the drivers who finish up front each week, barring a mechanical issue or accident. Even in cash games it is optimal to pay up for the one or two drivers who check all the boxes. As this is a salary cap game, we also must find those value plays as the “Dominator” type drivers are, more times than not, the most expensive options each week. Like I mentioned above, to grab find the best value plays look for drivers with a positive Qualifying to Practice Average Differential and concentrate on the post-qualifying practices.
Over the past year I have turned my attention to multi entering the low limit GPP’s with 15-50 max entry limits. This has allowed me to test out a bunch of different strategies. What I find works best is selecting a core of three of four drivers (depending on the week) and building multiple lineups around them, interchanging the pieces. This, in itself, is a variable strategy as the weeks where your core takes a hit you suffer larger losses than if you had a mix of more drivers. However, on the weeks where your core three or four hits, you will profit much bigger and have a greater chance of hitting the right combination and taking down a GPP.
With that dive into the Daytona 500!
The official 2017 NASCAR season gets underway this Sunday with the sport’s biggest race, the 59th running of the Great American Race. Daytona International Speedway is a 2.5 mile Tri-Oval Superspeedway with 31° banking in the cars. It means crazy high speeds and it also means NASCAR and manufacturer teams will be getting together to form a drafting combinations in an attempt to create more speed. This has been and will continue to be a main strategy for me at the plate tracks (Daytona/Talladega). The teams I am concentrating on the most this weekend are going to be Joe Gibbs Racing/Front Row Motorsports (Toyota) and Team Penske/Stewart-Haas Racing (Ford). Let’s get into my favorite picks for the Daytona 500.DraftKings Picks for the Daytona 5002021 Daytona 500 Fantasy Picks
Denny Hamlin ($9,600)
The Daytona 500 defending champion comes at an elite value this week as the sixth ranked driver in DraftKings salary. Outside of his big win last February, he has also finished Top 5 in three of his last four races at Daytona and is tied wit the second most laps led (116) in that time. We have seen early on in Speedweeks that the JGR and Toyota cars will be working together and look extremely fast. Even after a pit penalty in the second Duel on Thursday, Hamlin was able to work with Austin Dillon and make his way to the front, eventually passing Dale Jr. to grab the checkered flag. With a mid $9K price tag, Hamlin is safe in all formats.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($10,600)
Any questions of about Dale Earnhardt Jr’s health should be left at the door after Thursday night’s Duel races. He started on the front row and ended up leading 53 laps pulling off some vintage maneuvers to keep himself out front of the fast line. He got passed late by Denny Hamlin and finished sixth but with a starting position on the front row for Sunday’s race, he will once again be in a great spot to pick up a ton of laps led. If planning on stacking Hendrick teammates consider Chase Elliot ($9,200) or Kasey Kahne ($7,600) who come at a discount from the seven time champion, Jimmie Johnson ($10,000).
Clint Bowyer ($7,800)
It’s a new team, new season and new opportunity for Clint Bowyer to show off his talents behind the wheel of race car. He joined Stewart-Haas racing this off-season and looks to fill the gigantic shoes of the departing Tony Stewart. He will have a great opportunity to get things going at a track he has had success at over his career. He has never won at Daytona but has finished Top 10 in three of his last four races and 11 of his 22 career races here. If he gets off to a fast start this season, there is a good chance we won’t see him in the $7K range very often. Take advantage of the value this week.
David Ragan ($6,000)
If you are employing a stars and scrubs approach this week, or any week for that matter, you need to nail one or two bottom end picks. That doesn’t mean they have to win the race or even finish Top 10. Ragan will start 22nd for the Daytona 500 which gives him a little room for place differential upside considering he has finished Top 20 in three of his last four Daytona races. While it was almost six years ago now, Ragan also won the July Coke Zero 400 her at Daytona back in 2011 so he know how to get around. It was also positive to see him push Dale Jr. early in the second Duel before getting involved in some contact and finishing 11th.
Thank you for reading and if you have any questions through practices leading up to the race on Sunday you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Jager_Bombs9).
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